The Holiday Decision: Why Your Best Women Are Deciding Right Now (While You're Planning Your Vacation)
She's wrapping presents. You're wrapping up Q4 revenue reports.
And while you're both planning your holiday breaks, she's also planning something else: her exit strategy.
Here's what you don't know: By the time everyone returns to the office in January, she's already made her decision. You'll find out in February when she gives her month's notice. And you'll be blindsided - because to you, it'll feel sudden. But to her? She's been thinking about it since December 20th.
Welcome to what we call the "Holiday Decision Window" - the 10-14 days when your best female talent mentally checks out, reflects on their career trajectory, and decides whether they're staying or going in 2026. Research shows that January sees a 22% surge in job applications above typical months, but here's the kicker: those decisions aren't made in January. They're made right now, during the holidays, when distance creates clarity.
Why the Holidays Are Career Decision Time (Not Relaxation Time)
You think she's on a ski slope, spending time with family and friends and forgetting about work. She is. But she's also thinking about work more clearly than she has all year.
Vacations don't just reduce stress - they increase cognitive clarity. When employees psychologically detach from their daily work grind, they gain perspective. And perspective is dangerous when you've been underpaid, under-promoted, and under-appreciated for the past 12 months.
Here's what's happening in her head during that supposedly "relaxing" holiday:
She's doing the math. How much did she make this year? How does that compare to peers on LinkedIn who got promoted? (Spoiler: they did better.) What's her market value? Is she getting it here? Women are 28.8% more likely to list career breaks on their profiles, and they're also more likely to reflect during those breaks.
She's having conversations. Her partner asks: "So, what's next for you?" Her sister mentions: "My friend just got promoted to VP - didn't you start at the same time?" Her college roommate texts: "My company's hiring, interested?" Every conversation reinforces one question: Should I still be here?
She's scrolling LinkedIn. And seeing everyone else's year-end wins. Promotions. New titles. Career moves. Meanwhile, her title hasn't changed in three years. The algorithm knows what it's doing - it's showing her what's possible elsewhere.
By December 31st, when she's watching fireworks and making New Year's resolutions, one of them is: 2026 is the year I make a change. She just hasn't told you yet.
The Invisible Timeline: December Decision → February Departure
Most leaders think resignations happen suddenly. They don't. They happen in stages, and the holiday break is Stage One.
Here's the real timeline:
December 15-20: She wraps up year-end projects. Already mentally checking out. Performance review feedback lands - vague promises about "growth opportunities" and "development" - which she translates as: Not this year. Probably not next year either.
December 21-January 5: Holiday break. She's away from the office, but she's making the decision. Studies show that time off boosts reflection and clarity, which is great for well-being but terrible for retention when that clarity reveals dissatisfaction.
January 6-10: Returns to office. Decision made (but she's not telling you). She's observing: Does anything feel different? Am I excited to be back? Spoiler: she's not.
January 11-31: Quiet job search begins. She updates her LinkedIn (you don't notice). Takes "dentist appointments" (actually recruiter calls). Her engagement drops, but you assume she's just "settling back in."
February: Active interviewing. By mid-month, she has two offers. By February 28th, she gives notice. You're shocked. She's been gone for 10 weeks - you just didn't see it.
The cost of replacing her? €180K-200K for a mid-senior role. And that's just direct costs. Factor in lost productivity, institutional knowledge, and team morale impact, and you're looking at significantly more.
The Signals You're Missing Right Now
Let me guess: you think if she was unhappy, she'd tell you. She won't. Women are socialized not to complain, especially when they're unsure whether their concerns will be taken seriously. So instead, they quietly check out.
Here are the signals happening right now that you're probably ignoring:
She's quieter in year-end meetings. Not contributing ideas for Q1 planning. Why would she? She's not planning to be here.
She declined the holiday party. Or showed up for 20 minutes and left. She's disconnecting from the team - emotionally preparing for departure.
Her LinkedIn profile got updated. December 10th, actually. Added some skills, updated her headline. You didn't check, but recruiters did.
She's taking all her remaining vacation days. Maximizing benefits before she leaves. Smart.
She's been cleaning out files. Subtly organizing her work so it's easy to hand off. She's already planning her transition - you just don't know it yet.
What You Should Do This Week (Before December 20th)
You have 72 hours before most people leave for the holidays. Here's your window.
Have the "2026 Vision" conversation. Not a performance review. Not a "how's everything going?" check-in. A real conversation:
"What does success look like for you in 2026?"
"What would make this your best year here?"
"What's one thing that would make you excited to come back in January?"
If she hesitates, you've got your answer. She's already mentally halfway out the door.
Give her a clear timeline IN WRITING. Vague promises like "we're thinking about promoting you next year" don't work. They actually trigger departures. Instead: "Here's your path: Director by Q3, with these specific milestones. Here's the project coming your way in Q1 to prove you're ready."
Make her feel seen before she leaves. Year-end recognition shouldn't wait for annual review cycles. Tell her, specifically, what she accomplished this year that mattered. Not "great job on everything." Name the project. Name the impact. Show her that leadership actually knows what she's doing.
If you do these three things this week, you might recapture her attention. If you don't, she'll spend the next two weeks reflecting on why she should leave - and by January 6th, that decision is locked in.
If You're Already Too Late (What to Do January 6th)
Let's say you're reading this December 21st and everyone's already gone. Or it's January and they're back. You still have a second chance, but you need to move fast.
First week back = second chance. When she returns January 6th, have the conversation immediately. Don't wait for scheduled one-on-ones. Ask: "Did you have time to think about your career over the break? What came up for you?"
If she's been thinking about leaving, this question signals that you actually care about her trajectory, not just her output. Research shows that three out of four employees would stay if employers simply listened to their concerns. But you have to ask first.
Show her the year ahead. Q1 opportunities. High-visibility projects. Stretch assignments. If she's mentally checked out, seeing something interesting on the horizon might be enough to re-engage her.
Be honest about the path. If there's a promotion timeline, share it. If there isn't, say that too, but explain what needs to happen for one to open up. Transparency builds trust. Vagueness builds resentment.
The €660K Question
Here's the math you're not seeing: if three of your senior women make the decision to leave this December, and you don't find out until February, you're looking at €540K-660K in replacement costs (at €180-220K per person). That's nearly three-quarters of a million euros walking out the door because no one had a 20-minute conversation in December.
Compare that to the cost of retention: a promotion, a raise, a high-visibility project, clear career pathing. We're talking €15K-30K per person to keep them engaged. The ROI is obvious. So why don't leaders act?
Because January departures feel sudden, but they're not. They're predictable. The decision happens now, during the holidays, when she has space to think. By the time she hands in her notice, it's too late.
The Bottom Line
Your best women aren't relaxing over the holidays. They're reflecting. And reflection leads to clarity. And clarity, when you've been overlooked, underpaid, and under-promoted, leads to departure.
You have two choices: Have the conversation this week, or spend Q1 scrambling to replace them.
The Holiday Decision Window is open right now. What are you going to do before it closes?
